An honest look at business: why no methodologies guarantee success and how to learn to manage uncertainty.
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They are lying to you: There are no guarantees of success
Business books and "success stories" create an illusion of predictability. But the truth is that the market is chaos. No plan fully survives contact with reality.
How do you live without guarantees?
Instead of searching for guarantees of success, you need to build a system capable of surviving failures. Invest little by little, test hypotheses quickly, and be ready to shut down a project that has not taken off.