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Investors are putting millions into equipment that is more than a century old. Why the transformer shortage has become the main business opportunity in 2026.
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What happened
Ayr Energy, an American energy startup, raised $18 million in a Series A round. The company is betting on the production of equipment for converting electricity — transformers and substations that have been used in power grids for more than 100 years.
The paradox is that this very “ancient” technology has become critically scarce: global equipment inventories are depleted, and demand for modernizing power systems is growing avalanche-like because of the boom in renewable energy sources.
According to industry analysts, the average service life of a transformer is 30-40 years, and the mass replacement of equipment installed in the 1970s-1980s has already begun. At the same time, production capacity cannot keep up with demand: the queue for delivery of new transformers in some regions reaches 18 months.
How this is useful for business
The situation in the energy equipment market creates a window of opportunity for several categories of businesses at once. First, the shortage means that companies with access to equipment or production capacity can dictate terms. Second, the growth of renewable energy requires not just replacement of old equipment, but installation of new equipment adapted to variable loads from solar and wind power plants.
Investors putting money into Ayr Energy are counting precisely on this trend: a technology that seemed outdated is experiencing a renaissance thanks to the energy transition. For entrepreneurs, this is a signal — the market is ready to pay for solutions that were considered commodity just yesterday.
How to make money from this
There are several monetization models in this segment. Direct equipment manufacturing requires significant capital expenditure and specialized competencies, but provides maximum margins. Distribution and import of equipment from regions with excess capacity is a more accessible path with a lower entry threshold. Consulting and integration of solutions for energy companies make it possible to earn from expertise without the need for physical production.
The key success factor is understanding the specifics of local markets. Power systems in different countries have their own characteristics, and a universal solution does not work. Companies that can adapt the technology to specific requirements will gain a competitive advantage.
Business ideas
- Creating a distribution company for importing transformers and components from countries with excess production capacity in Asia and Europe, with a focus on fast delivery.
- Developing software for monitoring the condition of power equipment with failure prediction and replacement optimization for utility companies.
- A service company for repairing and restoring transformers that can be returned to operation for significantly less money than buying new equipment.
- Production of modular substations for remote sites — mining farms, industrial parks, agricultural complexes — where centralized power supply is unavailable.
- A leasing company specializing in energy equipment for renewable energy projects with short implementation timelines.
- A consulting agency for preparing documentation and passing certification for equipment manufacturers entering new markets.
Risks and limitations
The main risk is dependence on government regulation of the energy sector. In any country, decisions on grid modernization are made with the participation of government bodies, and the speed of decision-making is unpredictable. In addition, major market players — ABB, Siemens, General Electric — have significant resources and can quickly ramp up production if they see the segment's attractiveness.
The technological risk is related to the possible emergence of alternative solutions: distributed generation, new-generation energy storage systems, which may reduce the need for traditional infrastructure. Finally, no one has canceled currency risks when importing equipment — exchange rate fluctuations can eat up the margin.
7-day action plan
Day 1-2: Research the local market for energy equipment — which transformers and substations are in demand, who the main suppliers are, which modernization projects have been announced.
Day 3: Supply chain analysis — search for manufacturers and distributors in regions with excess capacity, study delivery terms and timelines.
Day 4: Identify potential clients — utility companies, industrial enterprises, developers, designers of solar and wind power plants.
Day 5: Calculate the financial model for the selected business model — estimate required investments, forecast revenue, analyze margins.
Day 6: Prepare a commercial proposal for the first clients or partners — clear positioning, value proposition, cooperation terms.
Day 7: First contacts — calls and emails to potential clients, requests for commercial proposals from suppliers, assessment of prospects.
Original news: TechCrunch Startups · See other news in the news section.
