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Spellbook founder Scott Stevenson revealed the scheme: thousands of AI companies present CARR as ARR, inflating metrics by 3-5 times. We examine how to distinguish real revenue from a paper metric and what opportunities this opens for business.
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What happened
Spellbook founder and CEO (legal AI startup) Scott Stevenson published a tweet in which he accused thousands of AI companies of intentionally distorting financial metrics. According to him, startups replace the ARR metric (annual recurring revenue) with CARR (contracted ARR), which includes unconfirmed future receipts. The gap between real and declared revenue reaches 3-5 times. As an example, Stevenson cited situations where companies count revenue from features that have not yet launched or include free pilot projects in the metric. The practice received broad support among venture investors: partners at Equal Ventures and FPV Ventures confirmed that they stopped analyzing “headline” numbers precisely because of this problem.
How this is useful for business
The situation with metrics creates an unhealthy environment in which honest companies find themselves at a disadvantage. However, for entrepreneurs who understand the mechanics of deception, it is both a signal and an opportunity. First, transparency in financial reporting becomes a competitive advantage — investors are tired of “paper” numbers and are looking for companies with confirmed revenue. Second, there is demand for verification tools: audits, contract analytics, independent metric checks. Third, consulting in the area of correct ARR accounting is turning into a separate niche with solvent demand.
How to make money from it
The key principle is to help the market move from “paper” metrics to verified data. This means creating products and services that make financial transparency measurable and convenient. The main monetization areas are software development for contract audits, educational programs for founders and investors, and consulting on correct ARR calculation. Each of these segments has a clear monetization model and growing demand.
Business ideas
1. Automatic contract audit service. Analyzes agreement texts and determines what part of the revenue is “live” and what part is planned. Subscription $500-2000/month for startups and investors.
2. ARR verification platform for venture funds. Instead of manual checks — an API that loads data from CRM and produces a report on the CARR/ARR ratio. License $10,000-50,000/year.
3. Educational course “Transparent ARR” for founders. Video lessons, reporting templates, analyses of real cases. Price $300-800 per course, cohort — 500-2000 participants monthly.
4. Financial transparency consulting company. Helps startups build a correct accounting system and prepare data for rounds. retainers from $5000/month.
5. Comparative analysis tool for investors. A bot that collects public data about companies in the segment and shows the real ratio of metrics. Subscription $200-1000/month for family offices and small funds.
Risks and limitations
The main risk is regulatory pressure. If the SEC or European authorities begin mass inspections of AI startups’ financial reporting, demand for verification may collapse together with the market. The second point: large venture funds may create their own audit tools, closing the niche for independent players. Finally, competition in the segment is growing — new services are appearing, and margins will decline. Recommendation: differentiate through deep specialization (for example, only legal AI or only enterprise SaaS) and build a client base before the market becomes saturated.
7-day action plan
Day 1-2: Study ARR/CARR substitution patterns using examples from open sources — review startup presentations, compare declared numbers with data from LinkedIn and news. Day 3: Compile a list of 20 potential clients — venture funds, corporate investors, accelerators. Day 4: Create a landing page with a free CARR/ARR ratio calculator — a simple but working prototype. Day 5-6: Conduct 10 calls with representatives of the target audience, collect feedback about the pain point. Day 7: Form an MVP offer — a minimum set of services at a fixed price and launch a content campaign on LinkedIn.
Original news: Fast Company · See other news in the news section.
